PL breakdown 

©TM/IMAGO

Few leagues in Europe can rival the Premier League when it comes to an enticing title race. Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City side sit just five points behind league leaders Arsenal, with a game in hand. What makes things so intriguing is that both top-flight sides have struggled to maintain consistency from one week to the next, with Mikel Arteta’s contenders and Man City both dropping 11 points from their last 10 league games alone. Such has been the drop-off from both clubs that none other than former mid-table strugglers Manchester United have actually won more points than either side since the turn of the year. So where are Arsenal and Man City dropping points this season, and how will it impact the rest of the title race?

Where Arsenal are dropping points this season

Let’s begin with Arsenal and use the weekend’s impressive 4-1 win over Tottenham in the North London derby as a useful example. Spurs, due to their major issues on the pitch this season, find themselves sitting 16th in the league table, and teams there or thereabouts have typically been easy pickings for Arteta’s team this season. In six games against the bottom four teams in the league table, Arsenal have only dropped four points and in nine games against teams placed 11th to 16th, the North London club have only dropped four points.

However, the issues become apparent when we start moving up the league table. For example, in eight games against teams placed 5th to 10th in the table at this moment in time, Arsenal have only won 15 points, which works out at an average of just 1.9 points per game. This includes the five points Arteta’s side have dropped in two games against Liverpool, alongside the draws in away games to Chelsea and Brentford. And, with just 1.6 points per game in their five games against other teams in the top four – which includes defeats at home to Man Utd and away to Aston Villa – it certainly seems as though Arsenal have struggled to pick up maximum points against the better teams in the league this season.

Where Man City are dropping points this season

However, those Arsenal numbers only really become important or interesting within the context of how Man City have done in the same corresponding fixtures. With regards to the bottom half of the table, Guardiola’s side have picked up a perfect 15 points from five games against the bottom four clubs so far this season, but have notably dropped 15 points against teams currently placed 11th to 16th in the table. So, in other words, Man City seem to have no problems against the likes of Burnley and Wolves, but have struggled against Tottenham (five points dropped over two games) and Brighton (five points dropped over two games). In total, Man City have dropped 15 points in games against teams in the bottom half of the table to Arsenal’s seven points dropped.

Where Guardiola’s side have undoubtedly thrived is in the games against the teams in the top half of the table. In eight games against teams ranked 5th to 10th, Guardiola’s team have dropped just three points, picking up maximum points in both ties against both Liverpool and Fulham, alongside home wins over Bournemouth and Everton. However, in notable contrast to such form, the former Premier League champions have only won one of their four games against other top-four sides this season. As such, Man City have dropped 12 points against teams in the top half of the league table this season. Which works out at four fewer points dropped than Arteta’s side.

How will this impact the title race?

When we then consider the form of both clubs to date and then try to predict how they’ll do in their remaining games based on their average points per game against certain opponents, the numbers offer up some interesting suggestions. Over the course of the next three months, Arsenal have one more clash against a top four side (Man City away), four more games against teams currently ranked 5th to 10th, then five more with teams in the bottom half of the table. If they pick up the same number of points from those games as they have done so far this season, they’ll pick up around 22 more points. That would then put them on a final points tally of 83 points, which would actually be lower than the club’s final points tally in the 22/23 season and 23/24 season.

But how does that stack up to Man City’s remaining fixtures? Well, Guardiola’s side have two more games against top-four opponents to play, four more against teams ranked 5th to 10th and then five more with teams in the bottom half of the table. Interestingly, Man City have the most remaining games against their most favoured opposition – teams ranked 5th to 10th and teams in the bottom four – which means if they maintain the same run of form in the coming fixtures, they’re predicted to pick up 25 points. That would put Man City on a final points tally of 81 points, which would be the club’s third-worst finish since Guardiola joined in 2016. And, crucially, leave them two points behind Arsenal.