MV set to soar? 

©TM/IMAGO

Brentford made hard work of their FA Cup tie against Macclesfield on Monday night. Although Keith Andrews’ side ultimately won the tie, it took the Premier League side 70 minutes to break the deadlock and that only came about through an own goal from defender Sam Heathcote. And it’s not hard to see why the Bees struggled throughout the 90 minutes: while they dominated possession and attempted plenty of long-shots from outside the box, Macclesfield allowed their opponents just one shot on target throughout the match. Brentford were missing a decisive cutting edge up front and his name is Igor Thiago.

Indeed, the Brazilian striker was omitted from the cup clash and to no great surprise his expertise in the box was sorely missed. So far this season the 24-year-old talent has bagged 18 goals and one assist in 27 games for Brentford this season. Such has been Thiago’s form in the English top-flight that he actually accounts for 42.5% of all of his team’s goals in the league this season – a record that surpasses even the likes of Erling Haaland (40.7% of Manchester City’s goals) and Hugo Ekitiké (24.4% of Liverpool’s goals). In no uncertain terms, Thiago is well and truly making up for lost time, after spending much of his first season at the club out injured. And it won’t be long before the club are fighting off serious interest from bigger clubs.

How does Thiago compare to Brentford’s other strikers?

To no great surprise, much of the buzz around Thiago comes from the fact that Brentford have impressed English football by scouting and developing a number of top talismen over the years. Whether it be Neal Maupay and Ollie Watkins in the Championship or Ivan Toney, Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa in the Premier League, the Bees have seemingly always found a way to stick an exciting and talented No.9 in attack each season. But how does Thiago compare to his predecessors in terms of scoring and creating goals in the English top-flight?

Since Watkins and Maupay never played for Brentford in the Premier League, we can’t make like-for-like comparisons. However, the three other strikers mentioned above – Toney, Mbeumo and Wissa – did lead the line for the club in what many consider to be the toughest league in the world and when we compare their strike rate to that of Thiago it makes for interesting reading for Brentford fans who may wonder if their current Brazilian forward is in fact the best of the lot.

For example, as we can see in the graphic above Thiago is currently averaging a very impressive 0.68 goals and assists per 90 minutes of league football for Brentford. When we compare that to the total output of the three strikers in question during their entire run at Brentford it suggests that Thiago is in fact the better forward, narrowly beating second-placed Wissa (0.63), while both Toney and Mbeumo sit on identical records of 0.58 goal contributions per 90. Remarkably, when we filter down to just this season’s form. Thiago’s average actually shoots up to 0.73 goals and assists per 90. Which, coincidentally, is exactly what Mbeumo averaged last season in the English top-flight before departing for a record transfer fee.

How much will Thiago cost to sign from Brentford?

It’s with those figures in mind that we inevitably come to the fee Brentford will inevitably demand for the striker when bigger clubs come calling in the summer. While the Bees are a smartly run club, they’re under no illusions as to their standing in English football and often prove to be pragmatic operators in the transfer market. They, more than most, know when the right time is to sell a top talent and it will be interesting to see if Thiago can demand a fee in the region of what his aforementioned predecessors earned the club in the past.

When we take a look at Brentford’s record sales for forward players, we can see that Mbeumo sits top following his €75 million move to Manchester United last year. Just below is Wissa’s €57.7m move to Newcastle in the same transfer window, followed by Toney’s €42m move to Saudi Arabian side Al-Ahli. However, it’s worth noting that Toney was in the final year of his contract when he departed in 2024 and may have demanded a higher fee if there hadn’t been a concern about him departing the club for free.

As things currently stand, Thiago’s market value stands at €35m – which is slightly higher than what Aston Villa paid for Watkins in 2020. However, following his difficult first 12 months at the club, the Brazilian striker’s market value has shot up by €17m since the start of this season and it seems more than likely that it will continue rising at an impressive pace. As such, if Thiago can keep scoring at the rate he’s currently doing so, it won’t be long until Brentford will be able to demand a fee higher than what they received for Toney and perhaps even similar to what Wissa or Mbeumo departed the club for.